Introduction to ‘The Future of Work for the People We Serve’

by: Liam Byrne MP, Chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Inclusive Growth | on: 04.11.18 | in: Future of Work

This essay is included in the new book from the Parliamentary Network on the World Bank and IMF: The Future of Work for the People we Serve. To sign up for the launch of the book as well as a conference on the future of work and inequality, click here!

Rt Hon Liam Byrne MP, Former Chief Secretary to HM Treasury, UK

This essay is included in the new book from the Parliamentary Network on the World Bank and IMF: The Future of Work for the People we Serve. To sign up for the launch of the book as well as a conference on the future of work and inequality, click here!

The future of work for the people we serve is one of the most complex and important challenges for parliamentarians around the world. Automation will change work forever. Old jobs will go. New jobs will come. But jobs will remain the drive-belt connecting the livelihoods of the billions of the citizens who elect us with the rising prosperity of the world economy. If we succeed in stewarding economies that create good sustainable work, we will raise living standards in ways that are faster and fairer, more stable and more sustainable.  

There will be both opportunities and challenges. For instance, AI alone may raise global GDP by a massive 14% by 2030 – that is $15.7 trillion. Quite a treasure trove. But equally, the world economy may need to create 600 million jobs in the next decade just to keep unemployment where it is today – and a massive 1.4 billion, of the world’s 3.2 billion workers are in vulnerable and precarious jobs, susceptible to some level of automation.  

The aim of this collection of essays from parliamentarians, politicians and policymakers is to bring together, from around the world, some food for thought. By sharing perspectives, policies, ideas and ambitions, we aim to connect parliamentarians to some of the key ideas across this fast-moving agenda. And what emerges from this unique collection of essays are ten key tasks for policymakers everywhere:  

1. Understand the impact – and opportunity – of automation for your country. Good policy rests on facts. We know the impact of automation will be profound. And we know that automation will affect some groups and some industries more than others. Here we present world-leading research from Prof Carl Frey at Oxford University illustrating just how profound the scale of change may prove, to illustrate a simple point: understanding the potential impact of the fourth industrial revolution on citizens is the first task of policymakers everywhere.   
2. Scope the opportunities of industries of the future. History tells us that the advance of technology wipes out old jobs – but creates new jobs in its wake. If policymakers want to ensure that jobs connect citizens to rising global prosperity, then it is wise to think carefully about what governments can do to foster ‘industries of the future’. Here we present perspectives from Nobel laureate Sir Christopher Pissarides and Alec Ross, former advisor on innovation to Secretary Hilary Clinton, on the challenges policymakers need to think through.     
3. Redouble efforts to unleash the power of enterprise and new firms. Advancing technology will create new jobs – but it will need entrepreneurs and small firms to help lead the way, making history by inventing the future. In two of the world’s most important economies – Africa and China – small business growth is now a key plank of economic reform. Our chair and vice chair of the Global Parliamentary Network, Jeremy Lefroy MP and Olfa Soukri Cherif MP present perspectives from the Arab world and Africa, while Professor Wang Wen explains China’s new plans aims for harnessing enterprise to transform its future.     
4. Work hard to connect young people to jobs. World Bank research reveals that automation will hit some groups harder than others – and amongst the hardest hit will be young people. Yet, many countries already suffer youth unemployment rates which are much too high. So… 
5. Develop new strategies to raise employment and enterprise rates amongst women. Raising the employment rate amongst women is a critical task for policymakers developing plans for the future of work. Boosting the female labour force participation rate raises the economy’s growth potential by increasing the pool of workers – and leans against the economic shocks of ageing societies. Here we present recent IMF research on the lessons to be learned from one of Asia’s exemplars: Vietnam   
6. In the labour market, rebuild systems for lifelong learning. If workers are to keep up to speed with changing technology and adapt skills over a longer working life, then education systems and lifelong learning systems need to change. So we showcase a summary of the research recently presented for creating a learning society to France’s President Macron along with Senior Minister Chee Hong Tat’s case-study of Singapore’s new SkillsFuture Movement, and fresh OECD research on the kind of skills that are likely to be a priority for all countries.  
7. In capital markets, ensure financial services are a proactive force for creating good new jobs. Just as labour markets will need reform, so too will capital markets. Over the last two centuries different economies have evolved diverse traditions of structures and regulations to ensure that financial markets are helping fulfil basic functions like providing access to safe savings – and moving money from savers to investors. But ten years from the financial crash, it is clear that financial systems need reform. Here, former Chief Secretary to HM Treasury, Liam Byrne MP and Senator Jorge Lavalle, member of the Mexican Senate, spell out the case for change.  
8. Ensure corporate governance is fit for the future. The new firms which are booming around the world on the back of new technology are different to the past. Their founders are often the largest shareholder; creditors are often few, and employees are typically the second-largest shareholder bloc – but without an independent voice. Here, Simeon Djankov, Director of the World Development Report, explains some of the challenges that will tax corporate regulators in the future, tasked with keeping new firms – and the jobs they create – safe and sustainable for the long term.  
9. Let cities pioneer change in industry and social safety nets. Cities were the turbo-chargers of the first industrial revolution – and today, cities are the crucible where new technology, new industry and new jobs are created. Cities are therefore often at the cutting edge of rethinking the ways in which safety nets have to be modernised. And so we’re delighted to share some thoughts from Park Won Soon, Mayor of Seoul Metropolitan Government, and the first mayor to promise Koreans that ‘I will change your life’.   
10. Reflect on how the rules of economic institutions must change to ensure new wealth is wealth that is fairly shared. AI alone could raise global GDP by as much as 14% by 2030; but how do we make sure that new jobs are good jobs – the kind of jobs that help ensure that new wealth is shared more fairly? Across the globe, the perspective of trade unions will be a critical part of the debate around new programmes of reform. Philip Jennings, General Secretary of UNI Global Union, the global trade union for the services sector, and ILO Future of Work Commissioner sets out the dimensions of a new social contract. 

 

Putting it all together.  

The way in which this agenda for change will come together in individual nations will vary widely. Different ideas will be priorities in different nations at different times. The challenge for politicians everywhere will be to put together inspiring, powerful stories and programmes for change that knit these ideas together – and crucially modernise tax systems to provide the state with the resources to act. So we conclude with an example programme set out by the G20 this year, which this year under the Argentinian Presidency, has focused on the future of work. We hope that you find the book useful and thought provoking in helping navigate the challenges ahead.